Break-even requirement
$36.00 contribution per completed sale.
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Formula or method
Break-even sales = campaign cost ÷ contribution per sale; conversion rate = sales ÷ visitsAssumptions
- Contribution margin should include variable costs and payment fees.
- The estimate excludes repeat-purchase value unless it is already in the margin.
How to use the break-even conversion
Find the minimum completed sales and conversion rate needed to recover a campaign cost. The result uses contribution margin per sale, not headline revenue, so it is suitable for deciding whether a traffic target is economically plausible.
Build a break-even case from contribution margin
If a campaign costs $1,400 and each completed sale contributes $20 after product, payment, fulfillment, and expected refund costs, the campaign needs 70 sales to break even. With 4,000 qualified visits, that requires a 1.75% completed-sale conversion rate. Compare both requirements with a genuinely similar campaign rather than a site-wide average.
Enter the margin left to cover campaign cost, not the product price. When several products have different margins, calculate separate cases or use a weighted margin supported by an expected sales mix.
Stress-test traffic quality and post-purchase costs
A mathematically possible conversion rate may still be operationally unrealistic. Separate new and returning visitors, mobile and desktop, countries, placements, and offer types when those groups behave differently. Keep attribution windows consistent with the decision you are evaluating.
Refunds, failed payments, discounts, creator commissions, support time, and shipping changes can reduce contribution after the campaign begins. Rerun the calculation when those inputs move, and treat break-even as the floor rather than the desired return.
Questions about this tool
Why use contribution margin instead of revenue?
Revenue does not pay back a campaign by itself. Contribution margin shows the amount from each completed sale that remains after variable costs.
Should taxes be included?
Use the same finance convention as the business decision. Many teams model net revenue and costs before tax, but applicable tax treatment should be confirmed with an accountant.
What if the required conversion rate is higher than past performance?
Treat that as a decision signal. Reduce cost, improve margin or offer quality, find more qualified traffic, or do not run the campaign under the current assumptions.